WHAT ARE THE CHANCES?
Have you ever pondered over what are the chances of something happening? There is a study of this known as the Science of Probabilities. Anybody that gambles should be familiar with the chanced of probabilities. Of course, that is in itself the problem. They don’t seem to “get it”. It is said that a person has a much better chance at getting struck by lightning yet billions of people play the Lotto. The lotto is sometimes referred to as a tax on people who are bad a math.
If I were going to tell you that on your next birthday such and such is going to happen what would be the chance of it actually happening. If it were just one detail involved the chance is a ratio of 1 out of 2 or 50 %. I think it is safe to say that the chances are not very likely. And if I were to add complexity to it it decreases the chance of it happening even more. And the more complexity that is added to it it gets even less likely. This complexity I speak of is called “details” in a mathematical formula. Each detail that is added means that certain things have to happen … come together … in order for the original thing to materialize.
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Keep in mind that there were 33 Messianic prophecies fulfilled in the life of Jesus in just one day. Peter Stoner calculated the probability of just 8 Messianic prophecies being fulfilled in the life of Jesus. As you read through these prophecies, you will see that all estimates were calculated as conservatively as possible.
1) The Messiah will be born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2).
The average population of Bethlehem from the time of Micah to the present (1958) divided by the average population of the earth during the same period = 7,150/2,000,000,000 or 2.8×105.
2) A messenger will prepare the way for the Messiah (Malachi 3:1).
One man in how many, the world over, has had a forerunner (in this case, John the Baptist) to prepare his way?
Estimate: 1 in 1,000 or 1×103.
3) The Messiah will enter Jerusalem as a king riding on a donkey (Zechariah 9:9).
One man in how many, who has entered Jerusalem as a ruler, has entered riding on a donkey?
Estimate: 1 in 100 or 1×102.
4) The Messiah will be betrayed by a friend and suffer wounds in His hands (Zechariah 13:6).
One man in how many, the world over, has been betrayed by a friend, resulting in wounds in his hands?
Estimate: 1 in 1,000 or 1×103.
5) The Messiah will be betrayed for 30 pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:12).
Of the people who have been betrayed, one in how many has been betrayed for exactly 30 pieces of silver?
Estimate: 1 in 1,000 or 1×103.
6) The betrayal money will be used to purchase a potter’s field (Zechariah 11:13).
One man in how many, after receiving a bribe for the betrayal of a friend, has returned the money, had it refused, and then experienced it being used to buy a potter’s field?
Estimate: 1 in 100,000 or 1×105.
7) The Messiah will remain silent while He is afflicted (Isaiah 53:7).
One man in how many, when he is oppressed and afflicted, though innocent, will make no defense of himself?
Estimate: 1 in 1,000 or 1×103.
8)The Messiah will die by having His hands and feet pierced (Psalm 22:16).
One man in how many, since the time of David, has been crucified?
Estimate: 1 in 10,000 or 1×104.
Multiplying all these probabilities together produces a number (rounded off) of 1×1028. Dividing this number by an estimate of the number of people who have lived since the time of these prophecies (88 billion) produces a probability of all 8 prophecies being fulfilled accidentally in the life of one person. That probability is 1 in 1017 or 1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000. That’s one in one hundred quadrillion!
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And the following was posted on Facebook:
“What are the odds? A mathematician named Peter Stoner once set out to answer one question: What’s the probability that one man could accidentally fulfill the messianic prophecies written centuries before his birth?
He started small. Out of more than 300 prophecies about the Messiah, he analyzed just 8. Specific ones – like being born in Bethlehem, being betrayed for 30 pieces of silver, and the manner of His death. The result?
The odds were 1 in 10¹⁷.
To visualize that: imagine covering the entire state of Texas in silver coins, two feet deep. Mark one coin. Mix them all together. Then blindfold someone, let them walk across the state, and pick up a single coin – on the first try.
That’s the probability that 8 prophecies could be fulfilled as a coincidence. But it doesn’t stop there. When the analysis expanded to 48 prophecies, the probability became:
1 in 10¹⁵⁷.
That’s not just unlikely. That’s beyond comprehension. In any scientific framework, numbers like this don’t suggest randomness – they point to intentional design.
The truth is that Jesus:
– Stepped into suffering on purpose.
– Fulfilled what was written.
– Walked into the cross knowing the outcome.
This wasn’t chance. This was a plan:
– A plan written across centuries.
– A plan carried out in history.
– A plan that ended with an empty tomb.
When you look at the evidence, you’re not just looking at belief – you’re looking at fulfillment. Jesus has risen. He will return. He offers you eternal life today.”
So you see, every detail that is added or involved greatly reduces the likelihood of it happening. BTW, the 33 details mentioned earlier has a probability rate of 1 in 8,589,934,592. The probability of being struck by lightning in the U.S. during your lifetime is about 1 in 15,300.
Here below is a chart from Josh McDowell’s “Evidence That Demands a Verdict” book published in 1972 and later was updated. And a second book was published in 1999.
Prophets of old foretold many different things that would happen at a future date. How do you suppose this was possible? How could they possibly know? Something here has to be in the realm of the supernatural. Either they were supernatural humans or just ordinary humans who were told by Someone supernatural … Someone like God.
Hmmm, since the bible is called the Word of God I bet God is the One Who told them. What do you think? But how could God know what is going to happen 100s and 1000s of years into the future? It is certainly not guesswork. He knows what is going to happen because He is already there. He is not limited to time like we are. His Word tells us He is omniscient as well as omnipresent. Omniscient means “all knowing” and omnipresent means “everywhere all at once”. Therefore no one can hide nor escape from God. And what people do even in darkness He sees them. God is everywhere! His Word says that what is done in secret will be shouted from the housetops. No one is going to get away with anything including politicians (if Trump won’t get them, God will). God’s Word says “Be sure your sin will find you out” … nothing is covered that will not be revealed.
You may be a person who is trying their best to totally ignore God … not wanting anything to do with Him or the bible. I am afraid I have bad news for you. It can’t be done. Sooner or later you will have to deal with Him. I remind you that “it is a fearful and dreadful thing to fall into the hands of the Living God” (Hebews10:31). We all need to make peace with God ASAP. All will stand before the judgement seat of Jesus Christ and give an account. And Jesus will use His Word (the bible) to judge us.
I personally like the Amplified Bible produced by the Lockman Foundation. It is my favorite version of the English Bible and that is because it is impossible to translate accurately word for word from both Greek and Hebrew into English as they are both far more exacting languages than English and we don’t have just one word that means the same exact thing. All of this means it takes more than one English word to convey the meaning. All of that aside the translators did an awesome job including their footnotes thruout the bible. Here is one of them found on Ezekiel 26:14 …
f “According to Herodotus, Tyre”s history began in B.C. 2750. It was a fortified city in Joshua’s time (Josh. 19:29), and later became a great maritime commerce center. Yet Jeremiah (27:2-7; 47:4) and Ezekiel (263-21; 28:6-10) foretold utter destruction for Tyre, naming NOT LESS THAN 25 SEPARATE DETAILS, each of which in the following centuries came true literally. Mathematicians have estimated, according to the Law of Compound Probabilities, that if a prophecy concerning a person place or event has 25 details beyond the possibility of human calculation, collusion, collaboration, comprehension and coincidence, there is only one chance in more than 33.5 millions of its accidental fulfillment. … This authenticity of Good’s Word leaves no chance for sane denial.
And here is another footnote from the Amplified Bible …
So far I have covered prophecy as proof of God’s existence. That is sufficient in and of itself, but wait … there is more. Design is another fascinating subject for where there is design there is a Designer. God’s Word says that we are fearfully and wonderfully made (created). We need not look any farther than the end of our arm for proof of God’s existence. Just looking at our hand and its complexity should convince anybody with a thinking mind.
